February 6, 2026 · 3 min read

TSB — How to Know From Your Data You're Ready to Race

"I feel good" isn't enough to know whether you've hit peak form for race day. TSB (Training Stress Balance) gives a concrete, numerical answer — provided you know what value to look for and when to start your taper. We covered the basics of the PMC and what CTL/ATL/TSB are in a separate article — here we focus purely on preparing for a specific race date.

What TSB value to target on race day

There's no one universal number — it depends on the race's length and character, and your individual response to rest. A starting point: +5 to +15 for most amateur road races.

How many days a good taper takes

• A short race (up to 2h, a criterium, a one-day road race) — 5–7 days of taper is enough.
• A long race / gran fondo — 10–14 days, with a gradual, not abrupt, drop in load.
• Too short a taper — TSB won't have time to go positive, you start still tired.
• Too long a taper — TSB climbs well into positive, but CTL starts dropping — you lose some of the base fitness you spent weeks building.

How to plan backward from the race date

Knowing your target race date and your current CTL, planning runs in the opposite direction from usual — not "what do I do today", but "how much load can I still shed so TSB lands on target exactly on race day".

1. Check your current CTL, ATL and TSB.
2. Count how many days are left until the race.
3. Plan a gradual drop in weekly TSS (by 40–60% relative to your peak week), so ATL falls faster than CTL.
4. Check TSB as you go — if it's rising too fast, add one moderate session to avoid losing sharpness.

A common mistake — training right up to the end

The most common reason for a flat race-day performance isn't too little training, it's no taper at all — CTL high, but TSB deeply negative on race day. Better to line up with a slightly lower CTL and a positive TSB than with a record CTL and a body that hasn't had time to recover.

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